I am joined by Tom Quiggin, a former intelligence officer who served in Bosnia, he worked for the International War Crimes Tribunal, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, and a court expert on terrorism to talk about what is going on in Ukraine!
I woke up today and saw the news about Ukraine, Russia, and America, and I asked myself, What is going on? Is an invasion happening? What will happen to the economy?
So I called my go-to foreign intelligence, and a fellow friend, Tom Quiggin, a former intelligence officer who served in Bosnia, he worked for the International War Crimes Tribunal, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, and a court expert on terrorism, and invite him on to the podcast to talk about what he thought about the Ukraine issue, and what will likely to happen to Ukraine?
On top of that, we also talked about what's the American Political Strategy, how will China react? What would NATO do in this situation?
Listen to the episode, and hopefully, Tom answered all your questions and doubts!
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James Altucher 0:01
This isn't your average business podcast, and he's not your average host. This is the James Altucher show.
Unknown Speaker 0:13
Hello, welcome to the James Altucher show,
James Altucher 0:16
you wouldn't see my face. I'm Jay, the engineer, Podcast Producer extraordinaire, don't put yourself down. And Tom Quiggin. So Tom, welcome once again to the podcast. You you, Tom, you've been my my go to foreign intelligence expert slash agent, and for every international crisis the past five years. So welcome again, Ukraine. This is probably the crisis I know the least about. But you you said you just hoped were telling me you've been there, right?
Tom Quiggin 0:43
Yes, I've actually been in eastern Ukraine and a place called Kana top, I was there with the convention horses in you know, conventional forces in Europe. Treaty. It was an arms control treaty. And I was there as an arms control inspector, and it's in eastern Ukraine and hurt over by the Russian border. So it was an interesting, interesting trip to see. While Yep, see a lot of stuff we're going to talk about. We can refer back to it. Yeah.
James Altucher 1:09
Well, so Okay. Let's start from the beginning. Because I think unlike many situations, like Afghanistan, or Iran, which are kind of in and out of the news all the time, I feel like this situation has been happening somewhere over there. And the American population until now hasn't really been focused on it. But obviously, it's, it's affecting the stock market. It's affecting, you know, suddenly people are saying we're going to war, like, what is the situation what's going on? Just talk to I am the naive listener like talk, talk to me.
Unknown Speaker 1:40
Well, if you feel like you don't understand what's going on, don't feel bad. The same problem is going on in every capital around the world, everybody shaking their head saying what the heck is going on? So what do we actually know? Well, what we do know is President Putin of Russia, is putting large amounts of military forces on the border with Ukraine, both along the Russian Ukraine border and increasing along the Belarus Ukraine border. These are clearly forces which are suited for a full on invasion, ie this is good old fashioned Soviet Warsaw Pact days where armored brigades and armored divisions with mechanized infantry are lining up ready to make a push across the border into Ukraine. Should the President of Russia order it? And
James Altucher 2:30
it's like, what Okay, obviously, Ukraine is split is one of the many Republic's is split off from the old Soviet Union. And then the little I know is that over the past, let's call it two decades, Putin has quietly been seizing control of a lot of these former republics, either officially or economically or in with his political ties. But what's going on? Like, why is Ukraine a potential military battleground? Like, what's the tension there?
Unknown Speaker 2:58
Okay, so there's a bunch of there's a bunch of history involved, we'll try and keep it short. But Ukraine is full of Well, I don't know Ukrainians. But the reality is about somebody, nobody really knows, but 20, maybe 25% of the population is either Russian, or it's mixed a Russian Ukrainian family mix. And many people in Ukraine, particularly Eastern 1/3 of Ukraine, identify with the Russian Orthodox Church, they identify with the Russian patriarch, they identify with Moscow, not quite so much Kiev. Now, there's also some mixed history. Remember, a few years ago, President Putin moved a bunch of forces into Crimea, and took over the Crimean peninsula, which is important for strategic and naval reasons. But here's another twist of history. Crimea has always been Russian, it's a traditional Russian possession. It was only in 1954, that Khrushchev apparently got drunk one day and decided it would be a good idea to give Crimea to the Ukrainians. And at the time, it didn't matter because it was the Soviet Union, it was all Moscow didn't matter who you belong to. But once Ukraine split away from the Soviet Union, a lot of people in Crimea were fearful because they feared living under a Ukrainian leadership. So when President Putin pushed into Ukraine, he was able to take it and here's the bottom line. Ukraine is now a Russian, it's not going back. It's not going to happen. I don't really care what people say it's Russian territory, and it's staying that way. But there's also some other areas along Ukraine border such as the Donbass region, which are rich and coal rich and industry, that sort of stuff, and heavily Russian. So Russian forces of various types have either been fighting there as you remember a couple of years ago, there was actual outright battle going on. And Russia has been penetrating into other areas in eastern Ukraine. So the question now is what the heck is Putin up to? Does he want to
James Altucher 4:53
a yeah, what's high and what's heightened things recently like, why is there invasion talk now over at As opposed to like, five years ago, 10 years ago, like, like, you know, so yes, let's say the Ukraine is the second most powerful Republic after Russia and that whole region, why now,
Unknown Speaker 5:09
the thing that's got everybody pumped at the moment, of course, is the fact that Russia is moving heavy, mechanized forces closer and closer to the Ukrainian border. And they're arranged in such a way. And they're the kinds of forces that would use would be used in a flat out invasion. And this, of course, takes us right back old Soviet days, it's the same sort of equipment, it's lining up the same way. And it's very clear, there's a push, also Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet, which is in the north up around, you know, Latvia, Lithuania in that area, is sorting six, Ivan row golf class vessels down into the Black Sea area in southern Ukraine. And these are so called LSPs. These are large vessels, which are capable of carrying large numbers of tanks, artillery troops and that stuff and then running them ashore. So Russia is putting everybody into a difficult position, because they're, they're putting troops in place, which could carry out an invasion on relatively short notice.
James Altucher 6:10
And so let me ask you this time, because we've seen this in the US, obviously, we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, and our ability to nation build was zero. And can any country invade another country and really say, This is ours now or is like geopolitics too sophisticated for that, like, you clearly can't, like take over country enslave all the people and steal all the natural resources anymore? So what what would be their goal even in invading Ukraine?
Unknown Speaker 6:37
So my opinion, my opinion is that Putin wants influence, he wants power, he wants Ukraine as a buffer state between him and the rest of NATO. I don't think he'll do a full on invasion of Ukraine. For the reasons you just mentioned. Taking an occupying territory is relatively easy. Maintaining that territory afterwards is very difficult. And depending whose figures you use, and how you approach the problem, Russia would need sort of a low end 250,000 troops to a high end of about a million troops to successfully occupy and suppress Ukraine.
James Altucher 7:13
How many troops have they have this,
Unknown Speaker 7:15
this would be like an all consuming effort for them, especially at the higher range. But personally, I don't think he's going to do an actual invasion of Russia, although Prime Minister Boris Johnson today, or is it Yes, I guess late yesterday said he thinks Russia will do a lightning invasion to take over Ukraine. My belief is Ukraine is a problem for Russia. There's talk of it joining NATO, there's instability there. There's corruption there. The Russian minority population is not well treated there for a series of historical reasons. My personal belief is a Putin is putting pressure on Europe, he's putting pressure on NATO, he's putting pressure on America, because he can. And because he sees there's an option for him to play Kingmaker and perhaps designate or at least create a situation where the next leader of Ukraine will be pro Russian. And just Just to follow up the invasion question about you know, can you successfully occupy a country, a Russia would not be able to successfully occupy all of Ukraine, because a good chunk of it is Ukrainian. They really don't like the Russians, and there would be a lot of resistance, which would get a lot of help from Western powers. But the eastern third of Ukraine would be relatively easy to occupy for Russia, because most of them are Russians anyway, who identify with Moscow?
James Altucher 8:33
And is that where the natural resources are like, clearly, this would be a natural resource play in part, I'm sure there's a pride thing as well. But where are the natural resources? And what are they in the Ukraine?
Unknown Speaker 8:43
There's natural resources like right across Ukraine, Ukraine used to be known, I mean, before the Soviet areas, the breadbasket of Europe. So if you drive outside of Kiev, towards the east, when we drove through, I mean, just massive fields with his rich black are so huge agricultural resources there, there's oil, there's coal, there's iron and a bunch of stuff like that. So the Donbass region where the Russians are particularly strong, where there's been a lot of violence in the past, lots and lots of coal. So I know everybody is going, you know, coal, you know, green energy. Future, they should be building windmills. Well, the Russians, the Chinese, the Germans and a few others, they're not really high on their list to worry about at the moment. And as they're seeing right now, Europe, and without getting too far into this European Union is inviting this kind of foolishness. By being incredibly weak. They're increasingly dependent on Russian gas because their green energy policies have closed large numbers of nuclear reactors. They've closed their coal plants, they're closing their natural gas plants, which is insanity. And now they've discovered that windmills don't work when there's no wind and solar panels don't work in the dark. So Europe is now being forced to scramble for natural gas supplies just to keep the heat and lights on. So another problem that's a part of this is As you know, you've got Putin pushing in. But Putin is a great power leader. Russia is a great power. It's been a great power since Peter the Great since 1700, whatever. And it does great power things and great powers tend to push outwards, especially on borders they're uncomfortable with. So you've got the European Union, which has, I don't not quite sure what to say here, we'll put it politely and say they have limited capabilities in both diplomatic and military terms. And that's being nice. You've got NATO, which is in capable in the moment of putting an armoured division into the field. You've got the leaders of Europe who are in a state of confusion. So Boris Johnson is trying to help Ukraine by flying weapons in there. Germany is trying to stop the Britain by doing it by forcing them to fly around German airspace, they won't let British airplanes move through German airspace. So because they say that oh, if Britain is sending troops to Ukraine, that could heighten the tensions in Ukraine. And it's like, Well, I think we're past the point of worrying about heightened tensions. It's already there. It's already a crisis. Now it's a matter of seeing it play out. But there it there is no European Union. There's no European Union Army, there's no Euro car. I think it's worth noting, and it probably not supposed to say these things. But the European Union had a had a national security adviser and a foreign minister from 214 to 219, Federica Mogherini. She is an Italian woman. And she filled this role is high representative of the European Union. But basically, it translates into their foreign minister and their national security adviser at the same time, which is just insane, but forget that. But she's a card carrying communist and I don't mean that in a McCarthyite kind of way, or pejorative kind of way. I mean, she was a card carrying Italian communist. So the European Union's foreign policy, if you will, for the five years sort of leading up to the current crisis, and the pandemic was a card carrying communist who said that political Islam, which is to say the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, and all those people have a role to play in Europe. So if you wonder why the European Union seems weak, they seem back footed. They seem confused. Well, you know, there's reasons for that sort of stuff. So I would argue that given the weakness of NATO, given the absence of anything in the European Union, Putin must look out his window, he looks, he looks to his West, sees the European landmass in a state of decay sees it in a state of confusion and says, Well, if I want to push further, if I want to gain more control over Republic's that are close to me, now's a good time.
James Altucher 12:40
Let me try to summarize what you're saying. So for historical reasons and current reasons, a Europe in part is dependent on some some of your your Ukrainians natural resources like natural gas. And so Russia would obviously like to profit from that Putin would like to profit from that. So potentially, it's a natural resource play. Also, NATO and the EU have been courting the Ukraine, and Russia would rather not have his biggest sub Republic or whatever. On the EU side, when he's sitting right there, particularly given the 200 year history of, you know, Napoleon and Hitler and Europe in general trying to invade into Russia. And would you say, and he sees weakness? And so what, what's his endgame? Or what does what do you think he actually want? He's sitting in his desk right now listening to this podcast. And he's thinking, I bet they don't know what I really want. Like, what what does he think what does he really want?
Unknown Speaker 13:37
My belief is what he really wants is a leader in Ukraine, who is unabashedly pro Russian, and will push back against anything to do with NATO, EU, etc. If he can get a if he continues, what what might loosely call hybrid warfare, I mean, he's putting forces on the border, they've carried out a couple of cyber attacks, they've been flooding parts of eastern Ukraine with Russian operatives. Anyway, they've been putting all kinds of economic pressure. And so what you're seeing is sort of a front a war on multiple fronts, although no shots have actually been fired yet. It's what we might call a hybrid war. This might be one of the first examples of a new kind of warfare in Europe. And he is looking to pull Ukraine out of Europe's orbit and get it more back into the Russian orbit with a either a Russian ethnic or a Ukrainian ethnic leader in Kiev, who is completely sympathetic. And by sympathetic, I mean subservient to him. I think he is willing at this point to rattle cages,
James Altucher 14:38
how will that benefit Russia? Like for instance, you can argue if Ukraine is part of the EU, they've got to take care of Ukraine if there's any economic issues and stuff like that.
Unknown Speaker 14:48
Yeah, I mean, if the if the Ukrainians join NATO and join the EU in a full on way and became a Euro using country, they probably be a burden on the European Union as they tried to drag it up to Western European states. But I think this is sort of in the long run probably exactly what Putin Russia doesn't want is they don't want a force in being they don't want a capable force in being on their border. Because historically, in Europe, when things get really stupid in Europe and things become, you know, chaotic and confused, and there's economies breaking down, some strong guy always emerges. And then one of the things they want to do is thump Russia. Napoleon is a good example, Hitler is a good example. People tend to forget that Russia bled heavily in World War Two. The Soviets as such as they were never really admitted what their casualties were in World War Two, they did say it was somewhere around 20 million. But historians looking at this thing after the war and going through Russian archives, guesstimate that the Russians lost about 30 million people in World War Two, or the Soviet Union lost about 30 million people in World War Two, it was an absolutely searing experience to them. And they don't want it repeated. It's also worth remembering. And this is another thing that isn't getting discussed much. In 1994, after the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine had the world's third largest nuclear force, they had more nuclear weapons than China, the United Kingdom and France combined. And there was huge discussions is what should happen to Ukrainian nukes. And of course, the Russians didn't want them there. Ukrainians weren't sure they wanted them, everybody else was worried about it. So in 1994, Bill Clinton of America along with the United Kingdom, and Russia, and I think France had a finger in there somewhere, saying something called the Budapest agreement, and it agreed to denuclearize, Ukraine, all the nuclear weapons would go back to Russian hands. And in exchange, Russia agreed to recognize Ukrainian sovereignty over all its territory. And the United Kingdom, the United States and France agreed to that. So for some Ukrainians, and some observers, they say, whether you like it or not, in 1994, Bill Clinton signed on to this agreement to essentially guarantee Ukrainian sovereignty against exactly what is happening now. So that's another little complicating factor, historically speaking,
James Altucher 17:07
that's an important one. So who owes who? What, in the sense that if Russia invades Ukraine, or even a part of Ukraine, they're breaking that agreement? And are we then obligated to, you know, we being US, UK, you know, eu? are we obligated to invade,
Unknown Speaker 17:25
nobody's gonna make an argument. You know, they'll say there's some sort of a moral obligation based on a treaty that an understanding was made. But in terms of an actual sort of legal obligation, if you will, um, it's not a NATO thing. So for instance, if Ukraine was a member of NATO, it would be covered by Article Five, which is to say, if anybody invades one NATO country, it has the same effect as invading all NATO countries. So at the moment, there is no sort of NATO EU existing kind of treaty or anything that says there'll be automatic retaliation. The other point, of course, in all of this is, does Europe want to start a potential world war three kind of scenario? Uh, well, they're trying to defend Eastern Ukraine from a limited incursion by Russian forces into the Donbass. And
James Altucher 18:21
you're assuming limited, a lot of people are assuming a full invasion. But I think you pointed out, that really can't happen. They Russia just doesn't have the capability of that. But even a limited incursion, aren't we obligated to protect their sovereignty because the 1994 deals,
Unknown Speaker 18:34
it's a treaty, it was an agreement, but there's no sort of binding automatic triggering, like there is, for instance, with NATO is Article Five. I think that's one reason a lot of people in Ukraine wanted to join NATO. Because once you join NATO, you kind of get that automatic agreement that says if you're invaded, all the other NATO members are obligated to respond to you. And just by way of, just to add to the general confusion, NATO last week, sort of changed its agreements and understanding and Article Five that it used to be a physical attack on any NATO country was an article five attack and everybody has to jump in. And then they sort of said, well, you know, a cyber attack on any NATO country would be considered as a cyber attack on anyone. But now you've got this thing where NATO just said a space based attack against space based assets or ground based assets that threatened NATO are an attack on everyone. Just to sort of add to the confusion at the moment, you know, here we go. NATO is kind of muddying the waters on this one, but I don't think Putin wants to do a full on invasion of Ukraine. It's a big chunk of territory. It's bigger than I think it's about the same size or slightly bigger than Texas summers around there. The number of troops required to hold it would be significant, and it would be a bloody mess. And, you know, I just don't see a full on full scale of invasion of Ukraine happening. I do see but But
James Altucher 19:56
everybody's sending troops around. They're like England, France. They've all been sending troops. into the area, us obviously has troops in the area. Is this just a kind of plot acting so that we look threatening or what's actually happening right now on the ground there? Well,
Unknown Speaker 20:11
it's funny, um, I just wrote a fictional book a while ago talking about how the great reset might go wrong in Europe and North America, as people in Europe attempt to push for the great reset and people such as President Biden with his build back better. That's the great reset. And I sort of started the thing history with a historical accurate thing that said, Look, nobody wanted World War One. Nobody planned World War One. But what happened was some idiot by the name of Gabrielle Princip. In Sarajevo, a Blackhand, Serbian terrorist decided he didn't like the Archduke Ferdinand, who was some third grade Archduke that nobody had ever heard of anyway, and decided to shoot the guy in a terrorist attack. They botched the attack, the bomb is fired, but they managed to shoot him an hour later anyway and killed him. So now why would I say this? Well, what happened after that is what seems to be happening now in Ukraine. The Austro Hungarian empire was mad that their guy had been shot. So they threatened Serbia, Serbia called on their friends Russia and said you got to defend us. The Russians threatened the the Germans and the Austrians, England and France decided to jump in and threaten the Russians and the Austrians and everybody started threatening everybody. Everybody started mobilizing, everybody started putting their troops onto trains and moving into the front. But nobody was fighting on an actual war. Then this idiot shoots the Archduke and a whole series of things undo and the next thing you know, we got World War One and we killed 20 million people. My sense very much is this is a historical analogy to Ukraine. The United Kingdom is moving troops Air Canada spent 200 Special Forces were sending a ship, the Russians are sending more ships, more arms going in everybody is saber rattling. And my fear at the moment is we could get a war by accident or wars to through stupidity. Some idiot decides to shoot the Ukrainian president, some idiot decides to shoot a Russian general or something like that. And then next thing, you know, things get out of control. And there you are. So again, back to what I think Putin's intentions are. He wants to pull Ukraine into its orbit. He wants a leadership in Ukraine, which is more, shall we say Russian friendly,
James Altucher 22:21
and not Russian friendly now? Like who's the leader? Like, what's the leadership doing now?
Unknown Speaker 22:25
Leadership right now I need you. Okay, here's another backstory. This story has so many moving parts, it's unreal. If you think back a few years, there was a lot of unrest and fighting in Ukraine. And a lot of people point their fingers at the American government, including the Russians, who said the American government was trying to create a color revolution in order to install the Ukrainian leader who was more pro American. So the saw the feeling goes, so the Russians believe and there's a good deal of evidence for that. So right now, you've got a Ukrainian president who says, I don't know what you're all talking about. There's no invasion. He just came out today and said, I think American citizens are safer in Kiev than they are in Los Angeles, which for today, anyway might be true. So he's trying to say, look, you know, it's a it's a noise. It's a problem. Yeah, we're yelling and screaming at each other. But you know, there's going to be no full on invasion. But then nonetheless, of course, he's got all these troops sitting on his border. So it's a it's a tough, messy situation. There are so many moving parts in it, it's unreal. But I'll just go back and say, once again, I think the intent of Russia is not a full on invasion, the intent of Russia is to pressure the Ukraine into dragging it back into its orbit, and they're willing to play hardball in order to get there. And I think the greatest fear I have would be war by accident, Allah, you know, the sort of world war one kind of analogy back to Sarajevo. The other thing here is, Putin is being portrayed in the Western press, especially as you know, he's 10 feet tall, eats dead burnt babies for breakfast. His troops are, you know, they got bayonets in their teeth, and they all want to go kill people. Here's the thing. Russia is not that strong right now. I would argue that Russia has a weak hand right now, their economy is not that great. The military is not great. But they have a weak hand, which they're playing exceptionally well. And Putin is playing and playing that hand. Very, very play. He's playing it. Well. He's playing chess, arguably. Well, the others are playing checkers, if you want to use that kind of an analogy. Meanwhile, over on the European side and the American side, you've got a series of weak leaders who are disconnected, divisive, you know, they're worried about what's Washington where they supposed to go into and they're probably worrying whether the Russians will be double masked as they come across the border. They're worried you know, oh, my God. Well, we have to triple a triple vaccinate our troops before we can send them and of course, you've probably got Russian troops sitting there who are being told you know, that they should To train so they can sit on the throne of the skulls of their enemies. There's this kind of difference in Russia. While it's not that powerful, and it's not that rich right now. It is well organized, it's thoughtful, it's cohesive, it has an objective. It's playing its hand. Well, while our European allies are kind of okay, sorrow.
James Altucher 25:21
I mean, does does does Putin look at like, for instance, our withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was a mess, and I'm not being political 100% of people agree, now, it's a mess. I just put a look at that and say, okay, the timing is right. No, you're, you know, Europe and America. I've been, you know, messing up all their foreign interventions. They've got COVID they're dealing with, as you pointed out, and now's the time to put a lot of pressure. Do you think? How far could that gamesmanship go? I know, you said it could be an accident. But how far will he what's the next step for Putin? If Ukraine doesn't just agree to everything he says, I think he'll keep up
Unknown Speaker 26:01
what he's been doing for the last last several months. And by extension, the last several years, economic pressure, political pressure, he'll continue to create a dependency in Europe on Russian gas. So right now, pipelines going through Ukraine pipeline is going through Belarus, and pipelines going through the Baltic Sea, are providing natural gas into Europe and Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on Russian energy, which is driving a number of people in America absolutely insane. The Nord Stream two gas line is the big issue there. But I think Russia will continue to push on Europe continue to weaken them, continue to draw them in through making them dependent on energy supplies, and Neil can consider using anyone but a series of dirty tricks. Such as the the Cyber Campaign, they launched, you know, a series of cyber attacks occurred against Ukrainian government institutions a few days ago, the Russians are going you know, not us. But I mean, most people, you know, clearly believe it's either Russian or Russian proxies, the Canadian Foreign Ministry just lost all its systems for about two or three days, due to sort of, you know, a cyber attack from who knows where, again, largely to believe to be Russian in orientation. So I think you'll see Russia just continue to push to push to push, they'll push on every possible door, every possible angle, they'll pull every lever, they can't see what works, when it works, they keep pushing in, when it doesn't work, they'll back off and try something else. Again, the danger here is war by accident, or war by stupidity.
James Altucher 27:50
So let's say I'm the Ukrainian president, can I just pick up the phone? And I'm going to be naive here. But can I just pick up the phone and call Putin? And I'm like, All right, we don't want you to invade, it's gonna be a bloody mess all over the planet. Let's just what do you need from me? And I'll do it. And we'll just we'll be friends.
Unknown Speaker 28:07
I think this is what's occurring right now. There's a series of talks occurring. Uh, you know, America's involved NATO's involved the European Union for whatever that's worth is involved. And my belief is that behind the scenes, that's exactly the kinds of discussions are going on is where does everybody need in order to make this work. And if I was advising the European Union, I would tell them, they're in a lot of trouble. They need to reorganize themselves, they need to have a diplomatic coordinated effort, they need to establish energy independence, he did a lot of things. If I was on the other side of the fence, and I was advising Putin, I'd be telling him push as hard as you can on every issue you can, because you're pushing into a soft spot. In other words, increase your demands for what you want in Ukraine, because your potential to get them right now is higher than it was two years ago, higher than it was five years ago.
James Altucher 28:57
And again, what does he want? He wants them not to join NATO or the EU, he wants them probably have some sort of economic control over their natural gas resources he wants, I don't know what else politically does he want.
Unknown Speaker 29:09
I think he probably prefer to see an increase in the the influence or the lifestyle of the Russians who live within Ukrainian borders, probably strongly push to have their areas receive more economic aid, more industrialization, that sort of thing. He would probably push to see Ukraine get isolated in the international community. Don't forget that the Black Sea, which is terribly important to the Russians, the Ukrainians have a coast there as well. I would think Putin would probably like to see naval bases under his control, not just in Crimea, which he's already got, but also on the on the Black Sea area on that where Ukraine touches the Black Sea. So I think he's gonna push for a lot of different things just to see what he can get. Also, he probably wants to He would probably be pushing behind the scenes for some other stuff. Like there's a variety of pipelines going into other places through Syria. Through go into areas and degrees, Russia has some very strong views on that. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia, focusing not just on Ukraine, ie I want X, Y, and Zed in Ukraine. But I also want ABC in other areas. For instance, Nord Stream pipeline, which is technically finished, it's complete, it's 100%, operational, the Europeans and the Americans to some degree had been jerking that around by forcing it to stay close due to, you know, business of legal reasons. I think he wants to see the Nord Stream pipeline open, because that would mean cash going back into Russia. So I think Putin is is clever, he's pushing hard. He's got any one of a number of issues that he can all say bargain for or push on. And I think he's in a perfect position right now to do it. I just see a couple of questions popping up on the side here. You know, what, what if Biden is replaced? So somebody asked me a while ago, what would be happening right now, if Trump was president? I kind of had that. As soon as I asked the question, I kind of had that. You know, that thing. We were trained in grade one in case of a nuclear attack, come to your desk at school. I don't know if you guys did that. But, you know, I just kind of instinctively doc, but point being, you've got President Biden, who, again, have to be careful what you say, I guess. But let's say he has been less than aggressive. He's been less than assertive. There are a number of people who would suggest the policies coming out of the White House have been less than coherent, if I'm being polite. The Afghan thing was a debacle of the highest kind of nobody's been fired, which is terrible. But if you had Trump as a president, I mean, there was not a lot of foolishness around the world will trump was president for the simple reason that most countries probably looked at Trump, they would make an assessment and say, if we do something crazy, what would trump do? And the answer is, nobody knows. Because Trump was all over the place. One day, he would say x the next day, he would say why, but the sense was very much. If somebody did something, let somebody or Putin invade Ukraine, Trump would either a do nothing, go golfing and and you know, have a hamburger or some Diet Coke, or be he'd nuke the place. So Trump had that sort of binary reputation where he would go zero, or 100%. Right now, I think a number of countries around the world are pushing on Biden willfully to test how far they can go. And I think one of the things Putin doing right now is saying, how far can I push this guy before? He's gonna try and hit me back? And unfortunately, given, shall we say, the debacle that was Afghanistan, given a certain domestic policies in the United States, given a certain diversity, inclusion and equity policies in the American Navy and the American army right now, there's a sense around the world that now is a good time to push and see what happens.
James Altucher 32:59
And given all this uncertainty, obviously, this is affecting the stock market. What do you think people don't know about the situation like I didn't know, for instance, that pretty much Russia doesn't have the capability to invade Ukraine that a lot of this is just posturing on both sides. I mean, it's sort of like the US and the UK have to show up on the border, because Russia showing up on the border. But all sides are basically not ready to do any kind of invasion.
Unknown Speaker 33:25
Yeah, Russia could push it and quickly, I mean, they have enough troops, they could probably get from Belarus into Kiev very quickly, because it's only 200 kilometers. But again, I don't think they could occupy the entire country. That's part of the part of the issue there is that, you know, the ability to take the whole place just isn't there. But the ability to carry out a limited strike to make an incursion or whatever, into the Donbass region is there. And I think people around the world here in Canada, around the world, their eyeballs just about popped out of their heads, when Biden did that to our press conference or a few few days ago to sort of, you know, celebrate or whatever, his one year in power. And he said, you know, a limited incursion into Ukraine might not be considered an invasion and everybody just kind of like, what does that mean? What is he saying and a lot of lot of people were suggesting he was greenlighting Putin to take over the Donbass region, which, unfortunately, was not an unfair way to read that now, of course, they walk it back the next day. But it leaves you with this impression that the White House per se, and the American power structure ie the Congress and the White House and everybody else together, it doesn't have really a coherent policy in a lot of these things. So it's not a good time. For these kinds of problems, what
James Altucher 34:43
will happen if Putin does go to Kiev, and let's say he says, I'm not staying just putting in a good leader? This is for the benefit of the Ukraine, then we're taking off we're not invading. What will the US do? I don't
Unknown Speaker 34:57
think you're gonna see a full on Cold War stuff. force on force engagement, partly because there aren't the forces there to do it with, partly because I'm not convinced that the Europeans really have the the guts or drive to get involved in it. Partly because the Europeans like Germany right now, it would take them a couple of weeks or three weeks to get it going. That's how bad a shape they're in. And that's amazing. Because I mean, Germany used to define modern warfare in Europe, even through the Cold War, you didn't pass. With German zipper heads with our armor, you didn't mess with German armor, because it was respected around the world as something that would lash out and kill you. Now, they just don't have that anymore. So, you know, unfortunately, once again, we're into that sort of situation where Putin will continue to push elite for weak spots. If he actually makes an actual, let's say, grab he grabs the Donbass area, as well, as puts in a quick strike towards Kiev. I don't think you're going to see like a full on NATO sponsored response, where armored divisions will go in and thump Russia, I, I can't see that the political will is there. I'm not sure the American public wants to send their sons and daughters to get a bunch of folks killed in Ukraine over something most people don't understand anyway. And I'm reasonably convinced the European Union has so many other problems right now. They have no idea, the will or the capability to get involved in that kind of scrap.
James Altucher 36:18
But they're still posturing though, which implies they would do something. So so what would their response be? Would they say, Oh, we were just kidding about our troops on the border? We'll get out now.
Unknown Speaker 36:28
Yeah, well, a lot of the troops that people are saying in the border sort of thing are actually in places like Bulgaria, they're in Poland, and whatever. So I mean, they're actually outside of the Ukraine, for a large part, the Brits are actually moving weapons into Ukraine, which would be helpful to integrate engagement. But a lot of the so called defensive forces that are supposed to be defending Ukraine or whatever actually aren't in Ukraine, Canada has a grand total of 200 Special Forces over there. Which despite the fact they might be some of the world's best would be little more than a speed bump in an actual invasion. And my suspicions are, they're they're more to protect Canadian interests. In the event, that thing goes sideways, or there's a coup. In other words, we'll at least have somebody to help evacuate our embassy, which, you know, if you talk about the American debacle in Afghanistan, you should have seen the mess that the Canadian thing was where our ambassador who left a couple of weeks before the problem started and just abandoned the embassy. So if you think your your thing was a debacle, you should have seen ours. But hopefully this time, folks will be a little a little smarter. But again, another now just one other thing in the background here. And if you're talking about, you know, stock markets, and how is the world community going to react, one of the problems is we have a bunch of international organizations that are supposed to handle this. So we've got NATO. But that's a Cold War thing that was designed to keep America in Europe and keep the Russians out of Europe and keep the Germans down. At the same time. NATO is a sort of an anachronism from the Cold War. And it's an organization in search of a mission. You've got the European Union, which is great at, you know, ordinances on what kind of sausage you're allowed to eat in the United Kingdom, but not so great on building a European army, which they don't have, there is no Euro core, there's no European army, there's nothing like that. The IMF and the World Bank, to be quite blunt, are corrupt, inefficient, incapable of really reacting, the United Nations is a talk shop that should have been closed years ago. And again, all of these organizations were designed post World War Two to maintain a certain new reality after World War Two. And none of these organizations are designed for the new Europe or the new world. And one of the reasons we're seeing weakness is because the organizations which are allegedly responsible for this stuff, NATO, the OECD, the IMF, etc. They're anachronisms for another age, which have become, you know, I don't know they're full of bureaucrats, they spend lots of money, NATO just spent a billion dollars a billion euros on its new headquarters. But they didn't buy any tanks without money. So again, we've sort of got this awkward situation where we're entering into sort of this post American dominance period, as China's rising, Russia is pushing, and nobody really knows the rules of the game. So typically, when we had a crisis like this, I mean, if you and I were talking about this in 1985, there would be a whole series of checklists, if they do this, we'll do that we have this force, they have that force, everything would be kind of gamed out if you will. But right now we have a series of weak institutions, weak leaders, and trying to gain theory, this thing or trying to game it out is an increasingly difficult situation.
James Altucher 39:39
Go ahead. Sorry.
Unknown Speaker 39:40
I just gonna say the last comment is I think Russia senses that, and they get an idea that it's a good time to push ahead. I just just saw a question pop up on the side here. Somebody sort of implicating that now would be a good time for China to go after Taiwan. In other words, while things are an absolute mess, everywhere else, it's a good time to start. Other problems? And yeah, I mean, that would be true. Most major organizations are good at one crisis at a time, they can handle a major crisis and a minor crisis, but trying to handle two major crisis at the same time. Ah, not good.
James Altucher 40:14
I mean, all all this, to me sounds like good news for the US and Canada, in the sense that probably, tensions will rise incredibly, and no matter what happens, were too lazy and stupid to do anything. Which is a good thing.
Unknown Speaker 40:30
Yeah, I think I mean, a sort of, if I had to say, you know, what does an optimistic outcome look like? Well, you know, point A is we don't wind up with a high intensity conflict involving heavy armored artillery and that sort of stuff, that that's hopefully optimistic. But I do think a realistic outlook is that Putin is on a bit of a roll here, he is pushing hard, he's looking for ways to get his fingers on the prize. He is pushing on every possible door every possible window, he's, you know, digging tunnels under the foundation to see what he can find. And I think we're gonna wind up as time goes by with the Ukraine that is heavily or increasingly heavily under a under the Russian umbrella into being pulled into the Russian orbit. However, one wishes to describe that. I see some discussions here on the side about, you know, banks financing, Bitcoin, crypto, and whatever. One of the few options that the Europeans have in America has, would be a full on cyber response. So that's Option A. So you know, if we quickly look at so people are saying, well, you know, if Russia does something stupid, they send a couple of armored divisions into Ukraine, why don't we do a cyber attack and shut off the electric power in Moscow? Good question. Good point. It's a good idea. One problem, there has never been a full on cyber attack by anybody against anybody. For the same reason. There's never been a full on nuclear attack by anybody against anybody. The reason being, if you actually look at cyber war theory at the moment, it's like nuclear war theory, it's a great idea. Let's, you know, let's turn off the electricity in Moscow, wouldn't that be a hoot? And the answer was, yeah, it'd be a blast, right up till they turned off the electricity in New York, and then it wouldn't seem so funny. But the theory on cyber warfare is, once it starts, where does it stop? Which is the same problem with nuclear wars? Once it starts, where does it stop? And the answer is it stops when everybody's toast. And nobody at this point is willing to risk a full on cyber attack against a major power, because you could wind up with your own lights being turned out, or one nuclear bomb in space set off in space would turn out most of the American grid. And we'll all be sitting there in the dark. So the idea of a full on cyber attack against Russia in order to dissuade them possible, but I don't see it happening. The other thing is sort of say, let's say a full on financial attack against Russia. And here we get into stuff like SWIFT codes. People argue that if Russia does something stupid, like push into Ukraine too hard, why don't we just turn off the financial systems? Why don't we cut out the payments and Settlement Systems? Why don't we cut the SWIFT codes? And again, good point, good idea that could actually be effective. But Russia over the last few years has been working very hard at developing alternative financial systems for moving money around exactly for that reason, because they recognize they're vulnerable. So one of the few tools that still available to the west. And the question is, are they willing to do it would be to electronically isolate Russia, from the financial, the financial flows around the rest of the world In order words, if you were in Moscow, tomorrow, try to use your American Express card, it would just quit. If you're trying to buy and sell oil into and out of Russia, the money just wouldn't move, they would have to either transfer it in cash or gold or something like that. So that's that's one possible alternative. But the sense very much is that the Russians could probably absorb the pain and they've been planning to absorb it anyway. So it's not perfectly clear that the so called sanctions regimes would be as punishing as people are hoping they would. I saw somebody else pop up on the side here. What about Hunter Biden, it's like a another another moving part in all this discussion. One can choose to believe whatever one chooses to believe. But it's painfully clear that Hunter Biden was in it up to here with the Ukrainians what he was up to how far he was into it. Did the big guy get his 10%? I don't know. But it's painfully clear that the Biden family was involved with barista, oil and gas. And this is another thing that if if the whole thing in Ukraine turns to absolute crap, which it hasn't at the moment, but let's say it turns into a complete diplomatic debacle. It's possible we're going to learn more about exactly what was then by Vice President Biden and then son of Vice President Hunter Biden, doing in Ukraine, what sort of influence where They seeking Why was Hunter Biden making God knows how much money and what was going on there. So from a Russian point of view, that whole Hunter Biden debacle to them was just another piece of evidence that America is trying to get into Ukraine to take the place over, in a way which will have strongly negative effects on Russia. So yeah, to answer that question, on the site there, yeah, the Biden affairs sits in the background as another, another one of many moving parts.
James Altucher 45:28
So bottom line, all these tensions are happening. What do you think will probably happen? What's when you kick back and fall asleep at night? Are you worried about this? Or what what do you think will actually happen?
Unknown Speaker 45:42
There are a lot of things to worry about right now. This is one of them. My people call me a pessimist pessimists because I always say what's going wrong, I call myself a cynic. I'm someone who likes to take things apart and understand why they work. I'm truly an optimist at the end of the day, and optimistically, I'm hoping that nobody does anything phenomenally stupid, to provide to provoke an actual a Cold War style, full on high intensity combat situation, which would rip the Ukraine apart and drag a lot of folks into this. Uh, but more realistically, I believe that we're gonna see a scenario where there is no world war three. But at the end of the day, Ukraine winds up getting pulled heavily into the Russian orbit, while America and the European Union kind of sit there and watch it happen.
James Altucher 46:32
And what's the downside for us in that?
Unknown Speaker 46:35
The downside is, I guess, it makes Russia stronger, it'll make them more adventurous in other ways. It will cause destabilization in that region. A lot of other countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Serbia, etc, will start getting increasingly nervous because this kind of instability is exactly what they don't want. And it also increases the sort of prestige, if you will, of Putin on the world scene, where he seemed to be sort of walking tall, and he's a guy worth maybe listening to, and a guy we're throwing into your your business with, also for other folks, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, this will rattle them right to their core, because if Ukraine can be sort of pulled back out of the Western orbit and dragged more into a Russian orbit, then they have kind of look at themselves and say, Wow, how good is Western protection? How good are Western promises? If he if in Ukraine didn't trigger a full on sort of thing? So anyway?
James Altucher 47:41
I mean, that's all scary. Like, I guess, if you're Biden, or any of these, or Boris Johnson, or whoever, you know, how do you spin this that? No, we're pretty, we're still strong, we abide by our promises, you know, and so on.
Unknown Speaker 47:55
Yeah, I suspect. I mean, the tensions are being ratcheted up right now by guys like Boris Johnson. And it's difficult to tell us the ratcheting up tensions because he actually believes he's going to defend Ukraine RSE ratcheting up tensions because he's about to get his butt kicked in Parliament and about to get thrown out as prime minister. I mean, you guys in America can't throw your presidents out halfway through a term but the Brits can they can fire their guy halfway through a term. And he's looking dangerously close like it's there. So I think Boris Yeltsin is ratcheting things up. And then if there is a successful denouement without a major war, he can claim Oh, yeah, we were strong. We pushed we were in there were a big part of saving it, even though Ukraine at the same time winds up in a much more difficult situation. The Germans on the other hand, I don't know if you noticed their, their number one naval guy just resigned. He made some wonderfully inappropriate comments about what was going on in Ukraine and how the Europeans were pushing the entire problem. Ahead. He did it in Delhi, of all places, he was in India speaking at a think tank, and made some comments. And as soon as he got back, he just said, Yeah, I resigned, don't worry, I'm not going to kick up a fuss. But it sort of highlighted the fact that the German government itself is wonderfully divided on this issue. And I mean, Germany is supposed to be sort of the central power in France together supposed to be the two central powers of Europe. They were supposed to form a Euro core, there was going to be this German French army to replace Europe, which never happened. But But I mean, Germany is supposed to be the big central power and France is supposed to be like the other power. Germany is just changing leaders right now. Mama Merkel is gone. They're exploring, you know how it's going to work under a new leadership. France, general a general sorry, President Macron is moving into an electoral cycle. And the last thing he kind of needs right now is to have France involved in a foreign adventure, which the population doesn't support. So again, it sort of takes us back to this thing that a lot of European powers are sort of ratcheting Attention saying all the right stuff. But when you look at them domestically, uh, you know, they're they're not really they don't their heart's not really in it. We'll put it that way. I think my
James Altucher 50:10
based on what you're saying, you know, and I don't know anything like you know them, my gut is telling me things are happening behind closed doors, everyone's going to declare themselves a winner, and Putin will have access to all the natural gas he wants in the Ukraine. And Ukraine won't join NATO Because NATO is useless anyway. There is
Unknown Speaker 50:31
that kind of thought just once had a personal story and all this when I was in a place called Karnataka, Ukraine, as I mentioned that start, we were there on a central, what was it called conventional forces in Europe treaty, it was a Warsaw Pact, NATO thing that survived the fall of the wall. And it allowed countries to go inspect other people's weapons systems, so Russians could go into Germany, Canadians could go into Ukraine, I went into Ukraine with an American led mission as a Canadian intelligence officer in support of a full colonel of US Marines. And the language of the mission was supposed to be Ukrainian and English, which kind of made sense because Canada and America are, you know, English speakers. And Ukraine is I don't know Ukrainian. And we kind of knew that Eastern Ukraine had a lot of Russians in it. But we kind of embarrassed ourselves and we kind of embarrassed our hosts. When we landed in Kiev, everything was going on in Ukraine and English. So the translators were doing their Ukraine English thing, we went out to countertop. And nobody speaks Ukrainian. They were all Russians. So we had to switch the language of the inspection to Russian Now fortunately, for us, our Canadian guy was a multi lingual, perfectly happy in Russian and Ukrainian, the American Marine Corps colonel was, weirdly enough. Next, a four pilot who spoke book Russian, he could sit there with social needs and have a conversation with this guy, he was that good. But it was just fascinating to realize that we were on a Ukrainian base as part of the Ukrainian army inspection, we were going into town, you know, to do the local tourist thing, whatever. And everybody spoke Russian, there was no one that spoke Ukrainian. And that sort of was like a real eye opener to us to realize that good chunks of eastern Ukraine, identify with Moscow identify with the Russian language. And I definitely identify with the Orthodox Church. They don't identify with Kiev, and the Catholic Church. So there is you know, people say, Well, why is you know, why would push into there and it's like, well, he's pushing into territory, which is rather soft. And you have to remember, if you look at Ukraine, I mean, what a place it's got borders with Poland, Belarus, Russia, Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. And then it's got a black sea border and a sea of a Zaveri, as well. And then it's got this thing with Crimea, the borders in that area have moved, changed again, changed again and changed again. So I mean, parts of Lithuania used to be Poland, parts of Poland used to be Ukraine, parts of Ukraine used to be Poland. And what you got is a situation where the ethnic groupings don't line up with the maps to well, the war in Bosnia, of course, was to sort that out, you know, all the crowds over here and all the Serbs over there. Unfortunately, what you've got in eastern Ukraine is you've got leftovers from wars of the past, where a whole bunch of Russian citizen Russian people who are ethnic Russian, Russian speakers, Orthodox, wound up on the wrong side of a border when everything was settled. And under Soviet days, it didn't matter, because you were all Soviets anyway. But now it matters. And now it's one of those, you know, loose ends of history, which has come back to haunt us. And of course, Putin sees this as a way of, you know, straightening it out for himself. And to his advantage, obviously,
James Altucher 53:53
which, my guess is again, I think he will do it, largely, maybe not 100%, but like 70%, and the US and Europe, and the Europeans will say, see, we solved it all and things, it'll they'll push the hand down for the next crisis, where Russia goes to, you know, Lithuania and Latvia or whatever, which might be five years from now or whenever, but my guess is, this is a push the can situation.
Unknown Speaker 54:19
Yes. I mean, and, again, I mean, I'm not empathetic with Putin, I wouldn't want to live there. I mean, I bet in Russia, I've seen around, it's got huge potential, but it's never really add a lot of good governments. And you know, the guy is dangerous, but you sort of have to admire him in a sense that he looks out over his realm. He sees what he wants, he pushes forward in an organized manner. He's patient, he's strong, unlike most European leaders, who have no concept of strategy right now, and this is a real issue. All these I gag when I hear all these leaders go and bureaucrats go, you know, we have a strategic vision. We're strategic thinkers, and when I listen to them, what they really have is a bunch of vision glorious ideas that add up to a tactic at best. There are very few people in Russia who are caper Aryan Europe who are capable of actual strategic thought. So in order to have a strategy, you have to have an objective. Out of your objective comes your strategy out of your strategy comes your goals, out of your goals comes your actions, again, you know that this process flows down. Putin, I think is capable of thinking big picture, he's capable of thinking long term. Whereas most European leaders right now and most American leaders are at best capable of thinking on tactical terms. And they are incapable of thinking any more than three months into the past and any more than three months into the future. They're trapped in this current tactical bubble. A friend of mine in the Netherlands, who's a Strategic Studies professor works in this area. I can't remember the statement exactly. I wish I could. But it was essentially said, you know, Europeans and American forces NATO in particular are great at tactics, but not to strategic effect. So if you look at something like NATO or NORAD or the American military, you identify a square meter of territory on the surface of the Earth, half an hour later, they can put ordnance on it and blow it up. It's absolutely amazing what can be done now with drones, missiles and everything else. But if you look at Afghanistan, for instance, NATO was there American forces with Air Canada had heavy armor and artillery there first time we put that fire out arrange that's Korea. Um, but there was no strategy. It was just tactics, fight this fight this fight that fight whatever, there was never an actual attempt to say, what are we trying to do in Afghanistan, and Joe Biden to his credit, and I'm saying that allowed, sorry, enough, actually made the same decision that Trump did that said, Either we're doing something in Afghanistan, or we get the hell out. Now, the problem with Biden, of course, was he just kind of said, Okay, let's leave. And it was, it was a catastrophic withdrawal that, you know, you know, they left Canada, her first, you left your best airbase first, and you tried to, it was a disaster. But the actual idea of leaving Afghanistan wasn't necessarily bad, because there was no strategic goal, there was no, what are we doing here? What are we trying to accomplish? And if you cannot identify what your strategy is 20 years into a mission, it's time to quit. And I see the same thing in Europe right now. If you can find me a European leader who has a vision of the future, ie a goal, a strategy that they're, you know, bringing out of that, and then tactics that follow introduce me, I'd love to meet them. But right now, I can't find them. It's bad, James. It's bad.
James Altucher 57:42
So you're kind of you're kind of worried. I mean, it sounds like you're worried. What and is there reason to be optimistic in this at all, except for the fact that again, I think we're lazy and we prefer the status quo. And so we'll do anything to keep that even if it endangers our interests in the short term by invisibly?
Unknown Speaker 58:02
Yeah, but by fear for the for the moment. You know, that sort of thing that you know, what rattles my cage? Or what makes me worried about my future? would be less, you know, is Putin going to invade the Donbass region and, or whatever? And will this turn into a nuclear conflict? Which, you know, theoretically, it could, my fears in the future are more a little more esoteric, I would say that Western civilization as a whole, and by that, I mean, Europe and North America has lost its Judeo Christian values, it's lost its reason for existence. It's busy tearing itself apart. Biden's got his build back better program, which is a polite way of saying the great reset. The the World Economic Forum is pushing the great reset, and people say, Oh, it's just a conspiracy theory. But Klaus Schwab, the head of the World Economic Forum, wrote a book called COVID-19. And the great reset. My fears tend to be a lot more along the lines of internal political collapse, internal weakness in Western societies, I think are a far greater threat to us than a bunch of barbarians at the gate.
James Altucher 59:08
Well, you were telling me about some protests that you're helping to organize in Canada, what's there's like millions of dollars raised and what's going on there.
Unknown Speaker 59:15
So for instance, here in Canada, if you're looking at a country that is the furthest down the road towards the great reset, or as President Biden would call it building back better, which was basically a way of trying to transfer several trillion US dollars into social programs under the guise of infrastructure, whatever. If you look at that, that sole sort of process of centralization of government, identifying everybody as a racist, critical race theory, all that sort of stuff, Canada's further down that road that America is, we've had six years of non stop Trudeau Government. Uh, the media was bought off literally and I don't mean that metaphorically. I mean, they were given a $600 million buyout by the Government of Canada. And it's brought most of the mainstream media into line. The RCMP has been effectively neutralize the opposition parties, the Conservative Party is, is fundamentally useless. It has no will to push back, no ability to push back their leader himself is you know, Pro Carbon Tax. He is pro gun grab, he is pro open borders, he's pro Paris Accord, all this sort of stuff. So what's actually happened is the government here in Canada and Mr. Biden's government, America has decided that truckers now must be double vaccinated before they can cross the Canadian US border moving in either direction. And a lot of the tracking organizations are saying why, you know, for the last two years, you know, we've had a Vax, we've done testing, whatever, but we haven't been cut off. We haven't been forced into quarantine for X number of days because of this. And what we're seeing in Canada right now is an incredible series of increased lockdowns here in Ontario. In Quebec, they're actually looking at a tax now, a compulsory vaccination or something like a two or $3,000 fine if you don't get it. So what actually happened is a group of folks in Alberta, where the oil industry has been targeted and destroyed by Trudeau, much as Mr. Biden start shutting down pipelines going after the shale industry. A bunch of folks in Alberta said look enough, you know, what we're gonna send a convoy of trucks will to Ottawa, we're gonna block the main streets, we're gonna make some noise. And we're gonna tell the government, we're tired of this. What happened is the things exploded into a national protest. Now, the number of trucks coming to Ottawa is in the 1000s. There's four main convoys coming from different parts of the country. The woman who's doing the finances for this Tamara leash, who's a Matey woman out of Alberta, who comes from a trucking family in the oil fields. She started this thing as a fundraiser on GoFundMe to try and make 10 or $20,000, to finance some of this, and they just blew past three and a half million Canadians across the country are coming out to a show of support for the truck drivers, they're going to feed them, they're going to clothe them, they're going to give them fuel, all this kind of stuff. And it's the first time in Canada, we've seen an actual pushback against the entire what you guys in America would call the build back better agenda. So in America, you've got like, Governor DeSantis in Florida, is head banging with President Biden on a number of issues. So there's a center of resistance in America to the increasing progressiveness, If one chooses to call it that other folks would call it a Marxist agenda. Other folks would call it Cultural Marxism. But whatever you want to call that agenda. In America, there's at least open division and there's pushback, you've got some governors for it against it, whatever. Here in Canada, we don't have a single political jurisdiction that's pushing back against the feds. But now we actually have this truckers convoy that was intended to be kind of a one off one shot thing, which is instead turning into a national event, which is going to start this the trucks are supposed to be here in Ottawa by Friday with the intent of shutting the capital city down until such time the government gives in so good I mean, interesting. We can Canada, James. Oh, my
James Altucher 1:03:07
gosh, well, I'll keep track Tom and good luck, keep keep safe. Don't don't invade the Capitol building or anything like that. We want you here for the next podcast. All right, jail. All right. But Tom, thanks, once again, you're always amazing in your analysis, you know so much about these situations, and keep close to the phone just in case. We need you for another one of these soon. And I really appreciate it. Thanks once again, and thanks, everybody, for listening who listened about YouTube? Subscribe to the podcast or subscribe to my YouTube channel because we're going to do more of these on every situation. And thanks, everybody. Will Jay. Take it from here. Take us take us off the live but thanks, everyone, for coming.
Unknown Speaker 1:03:49
Thank you, everyone. Thank you, Tom. I'm gonna put us into the outro and then you know, I will see you guys maybe the next time. Thank you, everyone. Thanks, Jay.